 Good morning,
With Florida’s August 18 Primary less than a week away, we are entering the stretch where campaigns, money and policy begin to intersect.
Several Tampa Bay races will effectively determine who represents the region in Tallahassee next year, the Republican gubernatorial race is already producing speculation about the next Lieutenant Governor, and major outside interests are making increasingly visible investments in legislative races.
At the same time, some of the policy fights that will define the next Legislative Session are already taking shape. Growth management and SB 180 remain very much alive. Artificial intelligence and data centers are quickly becoming political issues rather than simply economic development issues. Tampa’s
Rays negotiations have taken another turn. And as students return to school, districts are now implementing a significant group of education laws passed during the 2026 Session.
Here is what we are watching.
Yesterday’s Lead
Florida’s August 18 Primary will do more than determine nominees. In several important races, particularly in Tampa Bay, it will begin defining the Legislature and political leadership we will be working with over the next several years.
One of the most consequential races is Senate District 16, where Representatives Fentrice Driskell and Michele Rayner are competing to succeed Senator Darryl Rouson.
With no Republican candidate in the race, Tuesday’s Democratic Primary effectively determines the next Senator.
Driskell enters the final stretch with the financial advantage and a growing list of institutional support, including the Florida Medical Association PAC.
Rayner continues to campaign on her civil rights background and willingness to take on difficult issues.
There is another layer to this race that is worth watching.
Meta has become involved in support of Driskell as part of a much broader national effort by the technology industry to elect lawmakers viewed as favorable to artificial intelligence.
That makes SD 16 more than a local Democratic primary. It is becoming an example of how technology policy is beginning to influence state legislative politics.
Political Intelligence
Congressman Byron Donalds remains the dominant Republican candidate for Governor, but attention is increasingly turning to who may join him on the ticket.
Donalds’ latest announcement of county campaign chairs fueled additional speculation after several Republicans previously mentioned as potential running mates received campaign assignments while Representative Meg Weinberger did not.
That omission is getting attention because President Donald Trump has reportedly encouraged Donalds to consider Weinberger for Lieutenant Governor.
Nothing is settled, and Donalds does not have to formally name a running mate until after the Primary. But these personnel decisions are worth watching because they can provide an early look at the coalition Donalds is building around a potential administration.
Closer to home, Congressman Gus Bilirakis endorsed Mike Beltran in the Republican Primary for Congressional District 14. Beltran is competing for the opportunity to challenge Congresswoman Kathy Castor in November.
HD 64 is also worth watching closely.
Democrats John Rodriguez, Luis Salazar and former Tampa City Councilman Mike Suarez are competing for the nomination in the district formerly represented by Susan Valdés. Suarez enters the closing stretch with the strongest fundraising operation.
Republicans Angel Ramos and Dan Weldon are competing on the other side.
This is one of the Tampa legislative seats I will be watching particularly closely Tuesday night because, unlike SD 16, the Primary does not settle the race. Both parties will send nominees into the November General Election.
AI Is Becoming a Political Issue
Artificial intelligence is moving rapidly from a technology discussion into Florida politics.
Meta is investing in legislative candidates across both parties and appears to be taking a long-term approach to Tallahassee.
The company has supported candidates and future legislative leaders including incoming Senate President Jim Boyd, Senators Jay Trumbull and Tom Leek, Representative Jennifer Canady and Representative Mike Redondo. On the Democratic side, Meta-backed political activity has now entered the Driskell-Rayner contest.
The significance is bigger than any individual contribution.
AI regulation, data centers, energy demand, water consumption, social media policy and the use of artificial intelligence in education and government are all likely to become increasingly significant issues before the Legislature.
Technology companies clearly understand that.
We should expect them to become much more sophisticated and much more active players in Florida politics.
The data center debate also demonstrates why.
Most candidates running for the newly configured Congressional District 16 are now opposing the proposed AI data center in DeSoto County amid concerns about water and electricity consumption and the project’s impact on surrounding communities. DeSoto County Commissioners are considering a one-year moratorium on data center development.
This is an early warning for the development community.
Data centers have enormous economic development potential, but they are increasingly being pulled into the same political conversations surrounding infrastructure capacity, water, energy, land use and community compatibility that have historically surrounded other major developments.
I expect this issue to receive considerable attention in Tallahassee.
Development & Local Government
The fight over SB 180 is not over.
New reporting provides additional insight into the effort to preserve provisions of the 2025 hurricane recovery legislation that restrict local governments from adopting certain growth management regulations following hurricanes.
During the 2026 Session, SB 840 would have restored portions of the local authority limited by SB 180. The bill passed the Senate unanimously but ultimately died in the House.
Records now show that lobbyists representing development interests raised concerns with lawmakers as SB 840 moved through the Senate.
The larger issue is what happens next.
SB 180 has already been used in disputes involving wetlands, rural preservation, flooding and other local development regulations. The tension between state preemption and local growth management authority is not going away.
For homebuilders, developers and local governments, I would expect some version of this debate to return during the 2027 Session.
The question will be whether lawmakers maintain the current restrictions, narrow them, or give local governments additional flexibility.
Rays Stadium Deal Gets Another Rewrite
The proposed $2.3 billion Tampa Bay Rays stadium deal continues to evolve.
Tampa City Councilman Bill Carlson is proposing a significant restructuring of the city’s financing contribution that could move the deal away from Community Investment Tax and redevelopment dollars and instead rely more heavily on revenues generated by the surrounding development.
Under Carlson’s concept, a tax increment financing structure would capture future property tax growth associated with the mixed-use district. The city could provide an approximately $80 million advance to a development district, with future tax revenues repaying Tampa.
This is an interesting change in the negotiations because Carlson has been among the Council members most skeptical of the existing deal.
His willingness to entertain a different financing structure suggests there may still be a path forward.
Mayor Jane Castor remains skeptical about whether the city has an alternative funding source capable of replacing the existing structure, and negotiations remain active.
Hillsborough County is looking for definitive documents by late August.
For now, this remains a moving target. But the conversation has clearly shifted from whether Council members have concerns about the existing deal to whether a financing structure can be developed that addresses enough of those concerns to secure the necessary votes.
Education Update
Students returning to Florida classrooms this week are returning under a significantly different policy environment.
Several laws passed during the 2026 Legislative Session are now moving from Tallahassee into actual district and classroom implementation.
SB 182 restores cursive writing instruction for students in grades two through five.
The legislation also requires the state motto, “In God We Trust,” to be displayed conspicuously in public schools and district buildings and requires schools to display portraits of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln.
The same legislation creates additional support for struggling schools by allowing qualified teachers to serve as mentors at schools receiving D or F grades.
For charter schools, there is an important accountability provision as well.
Charter schools implementing corrective action or school improvement plans may not dismiss students based upon academic performance.
Another major change this year involves Florida’s history of communism curriculum.
Legislation passed in 2024 is being implemented this academic year, expanding age-appropriate instruction on the history of communism, including communism in the United States, atrocities committed under communist governments and comparisons among political ideologies.
For districts, these are no longer legislative concepts. Curriculum departments and classroom teachers are now responsible for implementation.
School Safety
Florida also expanded school safety requirements this year.
HB 757 creates a new second-degree felony involving the discharge of a firearm or weapon within 1,000 feet of a school and expands Florida’s Guardian Program to state colleges and universities, allowing qualifying employees to carry weapons on campus after satisfying program requirements.
The law also addresses the transfer of student disciplinary information into postsecondary education, including certain psychological evaluations and threat assessment records.
This is another example of Florida increasingly treating school safety as a system extending from K-12 into higher education rather than two separate policy environments.
Special Education and Student Health
Several new requirements directly affect students with disabilities and students with significant health needs.
HB 851 requires school districts to provide annual training addressing support for students with autism.
HB 1201 establishes specialized first-aid training requirements for school employees who teach or transport students with epilepsy or seizure disorders.
HB 1279 expands Florida’s anaphylaxis policies by allowing students at risk of serious allergic reactions to use FDA-approved epinephrine delivery devices rather than limiting the law to traditional auto-injectors.
The same legislation makes additional changes to Individualized Education Plan requirements and parental access.
These may not generate the same attention as some of the larger education bills, but they create real operational responsibilities for districts involving training, student health plans, transportation personnel and special education procedures.
Advanced Coursework and Teacher Incentives
Florida is also expanding incentives surrounding its new Florida Advanced Course Test, or FACT, program.
Teachers may receive a $50 bonus for each student who passes a qualifying FACT examination, similar to incentives associated with other advanced coursework.
Teachers at D or F schools may qualify for an additional $500 bonus when at least one student passes the assessment.
The policy is another indication that the state intends FACT courses to become a meaningful part of Florida’s broader acceleration and accountability framework rather than simply another testing option.
Districts should watch participation closely as the program develops.
Athletics and Student Participation
Florida also expanded access to public school athletics.
Students attending home schools, private schools, Florida Virtual School, charter schools and alternative schools may now participate on athletic teams at traditional public schools under SB 538.
Separately, SB 178 allows head coaches, under certain circumstances, to use up to $15,000 of their personal funds per team to assist student athletes in need.
HB 453 also expands flexibility for students with disabilities by allowing Special Olympics participation to satisfy certain physical education requirements and permits two years of marching band to satisfy physical education and performing arts credit requirements.
These changes will require districts to make sure athletic eligibility, student records and graduation advising policies are aligned with the new law.
Higher Education
Florida’s colleges and universities are also entering the academic year under several significant policy changes.
HB 1471 creates new requirements involving foreign students who promote organizations designated by the state as terrorist organizations.
Colleges and universities must also navigate new restrictions involving enrollment of undocumented students.
Taken together with recent State Board rulemaking, the policy environment for Florida higher education continues moving toward greater state oversight of institutional operations, student eligibility and campus activities.
B&B Insight
There are three larger trends I would take away from yesterday’s developments.
First, Tuesday’s Primary matters well beyond individual candidates.
Several races will determine who sits in the Legislature next year, and the relationships being built now will carry directly into committee assignments, leadership races and the 2027 Legislative Session.
Second, artificial intelligence is becoming a serious political and regulatory issue.
Meta’s investment in legislative races and the growing opposition to data center projects demonstrate that AI policy will not remain confined to technology committees. It is becoming intertwined with energy, water, economic development, education, land use and infrastructure policy.
Third, the 2026 education agenda has entered the implementation phase.
School districts and charter schools now have to translate dozens of statutory changes into curriculum, personnel policies, training requirements, student services and day-to-day operations.
That implementation work is where many of the practical questions will emerge over the next several months.
What We’re Watching
Florida’s August 18 Primary Election and the legislative relationships that emerge from it.
The SD 16 race between Fentrice Driskell and Michele Rayner.
The HD 64 Republican and Democratic Primaries and the November matchup that follows.
Byron Donalds’ eventual Lieutenant Governor selection.
The future of SB 180 and whether growth management legislation returns in 2027.
Tampa’s continuing Rays stadium negotiations and the viability of the revised financing proposal.
The growing political fight over AI data centers, water and energy infrastructure.
Implementation of Florida’s new K-12 education, safety and student health requirements.
As always, we will continue monitoring these issues and will keep you updated as we move through Tuesday’s Primary and begin looking ahead toward November and the 2027 Legislative Session.
Have a great day.
Sincerely,
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